President-elect Donald Trump’s 2024 victory was powered by an overall voter shift in most places and most demographics compared to 2020 — with a new analysis of precinct data in pivotal Pennsylvania coloring in additional details about how Trump won.
The NBC News Decision Desk collected and monitored precinct-level vote results in 50 of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties, totaling more than 8,300 of the state’s roughly 9,000 precincts. This granular data provides a detailed insight into what was happening neighborhood to neighborhood and block to block in the nation’s biggest battleground state.
On average, Pennsylvania’s precincts shifted 1.6 percentage points toward the Republicans and 1.6 points away from the Democrats — a 3.2-point swing overall that flipped Pennsylvania from a 1-point victory for Democrats in 2020 to an approximately 2-point Republican win in 2024.
The chart below shows the difference between Trump’s vote percentage in 2020 and his percentage in 2024 …