China is expected to lose over 50 million people in the next decade as its population decline accelerates, according to a new analysis.
By 2025, China’s population is projected to drop from its 2021 peak of 1.41 billion to 1.36 billion, Ada Li, a senior industry analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said in a forecast based on United Nations data.
China’s efforts, including ending its decades-old one-child policy in 2016 and increasing the cap to three children in 2021, have failed to reverse its declining birth rate. Official data from 2023 revealed births dipped for the seventh consecutive year, with deaths outnumbering births for the second year in a row.
The long-term outlook is even grimmer. The United Nations estimates China’s population will shrink by 50 percent by the end of the century. The Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences earlier this year predicted an even steeper 60-percent drop.