Famous statistician Nate Silver has published his final US election forecast modelling, and concluded the outcome is “literally closer than a coin flip”.
Silver uses statistical analysis to crunch poll data on the website FiveThirtyEight and famously called the outcome of the 2012 election correctly.
This year he ran 80,000 Electoral College simulations of the contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump.
Harris won 40,012 of those simulations, while Trump notched up 39,988 victories.
“The race is literally closer than a coin flip: empirically, heads wins 50.5 per cent of the time, more than Harris’s 50.015 per cent,” Silver wrote on his Substack page on Tuesday (Wednesday AEDT).
Silver said that Harris did not emerge as the victor in 39,988 simulations, and of those, 39,718 were outright victories for Trump.
The remaining …