Kamala Harris has a strong chance of beating out Donald Trump in November’s presidential election, according to new findings conducted by the Decision Desk HQ and other widely relied upon polling firms. There was a month-long pause on releasing updated data because of President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race on July 21. But with appropriate time now having passed, we are learning that Harris a 56% chance of winning the presidency. Previously, the organization had predicted a 56% chance of a Trump victory over Biden.
Decision Desk’s analysis not only incorporates current polling data, but also fundraising and partisan leanings district by district. Key updates include North Carolina shifting from Lean Republican to Toss-up, and Michigan moving from Toss-up to Lean Democratic. Other swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin remain Toss-ups, but Harris is performing better than Biden had been performing in them when he was still running.