Nate Silver Says There’s ‘Real Movement’ Toward Trump in Polling Data [Video]

Polling expert Nate Silver said he sees “real movement” toward former President Donald Trump in recent polling data, signaling a shift in key swing states ahead of the 2024 presidential election.

Silver’s analysis, based on his presidential model that tracks polling data and electoral trends, indicates that Trump now has a better chance of winning the Electoral College than Vice President Kamala Harris.

“Harris’s lead in national polls is down to 2.3 points from a peak of 3.5 on October 2. The race remains a toss-up, but we’re at a point where we can be pretty confident this is real movement and not statistical noise,” Silver posted on X (formerly Twitter) on Friday.

According to the Silver Bulletin model, Trump has a 50.2 percent chance of winning the Electoral College compared to Harris’ 49.5 percent, despite Harris having a 75 percent chance of winning the popular vote.

This is the first time Trump has had a lead in the model …